If you recall the argument from this morning be 0z and 6z GFS and the 0z European model had diametrically opposing solutions with regard to the last few days of February. Both models were taking the Ohio Valley FEB 23 Low into New England and New Brunswick Canada. But the GFS model was developing a second wave of Low pressure on the cold front after it sweeps to the East Coast. The European and was showing a southern Low over the Gulf Coast FEB 26 …which according to the European model from this morning… would move off the southeast coast and then merged with the system over New Brunswick Canada.
After looking at the 12z Models I can tell you that the European model has blinked and it now looks like the GFS will probably be correct.
FEB 22-23 OHIO VALLEY. Each passing model run is taking this Low further and further north. Only yesterday it looked like the snow for the Midwest was going to bypass Chicago and bring 6-12″ of snow to STL central ILL… northern and central IND & OH then into Northern PA and NY state and perhaps into Boston as well. But the track of the system has shifted to the north again… with the snow now reaching Chicago and and Detroit while much of the Ohio Valley appears to be getting rain as the temperatures rapidly warm!
This also means that Boston may not see any significance snow out of this event either.